Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 0.050679 0.057565 0.065261 0.074539 0.085474 0.098019 0.113591
2026-01-11 0.041648 0.050516 0.061263 0.075393 0.093699 0.116920 0.149096
2026-01-18 0.034931 0.044813 0.057663 0.075918 0.101722 0.137744 0.193402
2026-01-25 0.029017 0.039080 0.052997 0.074196 0.106682 0.156379 0.241945
2026-02-01 0.023967 0.033665 0.047823 0.070780 0.108672 0.171898 0.292993
2026-02-08 0.020891 0.030575 0.045487 0.071241 0.117149 0.201177 0.382289
2026-02-15 0.018391 0.027951 0.043417 0.071779 0.126257 0.235674 0.502478
2026-02-22 0.016490 0.025973 0.042061 0.073338 0.138087 0.281221 0.679976
2026-03-01 0.014837 0.024147 0.040647 0.074543 0.149978 0.333455 0.920839
2026-03-08 0.013127 0.021961 0.038213 0.073231 0.156313 0.376803 1.182941
2026-03-15 0.011295 0.019295 0.034439 0.068303 0.152822 0.393577 1.378502
2026-03-22 0.010303 0.018052 0.033237 0.068783 0.163335 0.458445 1.863451
2026-03-29 0.009546 0.017173 0.032678 0.070795 0.179509 0.555760 2.703002
2026-04-05 0.008771 0.016150 0.031647 0.071468 0.192592 0.655188 3.827240
2026-04-12 0.008071 0.015186 0.030588 0.071853 0.205423 0.768213 5.457706
2026-04-19 0.007325 0.014027 0.028899 0.070157 0.210921 0.857109 7.308957
2026-04-26 0.006582 0.012784 0.026824 0.066898 0.209723 0.915000 9.201564
2026-05-03 0.006131 0.012124 0.026046 0.067274 0.222914 1.071358 13.683071
2026-05-10 0.005733 0.011533 0.025344 0.067729 0.237111 1.258587 20.947701
2026-05-17 0.005420 0.011096 0.024963 0.069143 0.256744 1.521554 34.887986
2026-05-24 0.005122 0.010660 0.024512 0.070232 0.276048 1.826818 59.662258
2026-05-31 0.004762 0.010034 0.023460 0.068985 0.283451 2.050440 91.633721
2026-06-07 0.004316 0.009153 0.021590 0.064381 0.270998 2.059905 111.003518